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People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%.
How the process works:
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You’ll have noted the PBOC have been bumping up the yuan in this setting, USD/CNY below 7.10.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
You could sense this coming yesterday.
I wrote at the close that the failure to retake the pre-tariff high was a warning sign and now the sellers are hitting the market hard. The S&P 500 is down 1%.
One of the catalysts was Zions Bankcorp taking a write down on what the company called a fraudulent loan (shares down 13%). That adds further fuel to the fire of private equity worries after the bankruptcy of First Brands. Reuters writes more here. That has broader banking stocks lagging.
Consumer facing names are also struggling with WMT off by 2.9% after a recent run-up.
What next? We might have to test the tariff lows and hope they hold.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
Standard Chartered says reserve managers are buying the US dollar when it weakens and selling on rallies.
Dollar reserves and Bloomberg Dollar Index have moved opposite in 17 of 20 quarters, per IMF data.
In Q2 2025, reserves rose as the dollar fell; in Q4 2024, reserves fell as the dollar rallied.
The behaviour reflects cautious and opportunistic management by central banks.
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Global reserve managers appear to be taking a countercyclical approach to the U.S. dollar, buying when it weakens and trimming holdings when it strengthens, according to Standard Chartered.
In a note citing IMF data, StahChart said dollar reserves and the Bloomberg Dollar Index have moved in opposite directions in 17 of the past 20 quarters, suggesting that official managers use currency swings to rebalance portfolios rather than reinforce market trends.
Pointed to the second quarter of 2025,
likely because central banks avoided adding to selling pressure. Conversely, in the fourth quarter of 2024, when the dollar gained 7.1%, reserves dropped by $154 billion as managers took profits on strength.
StanChart said the pattern reflects a mix of “caution, opportunism, and size”, noting that official institutions remain important stabilising forces in global currency markets.
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This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Kashkari says the economy may be stronger than expected, with limited risk of major slowdown (earlier headline post).
Sees labour-market weakness as a bigger risk than renewed inflation.
Supports two more rate cuts as insurance, not because of immediate weakness.
Inflation may stay near 3%, but unlikely to surge higher.
Warns the shutdown is blurring real-time readings of the economy.
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Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he doubts the U.S. economy is decelerating as sharply as many believe, suggesting growth remains firmer than commonly assumed even as policymakers weigh additional rate cuts. Kashkari backed the Fed’s September quarter-point rate cut.
Speaking at a town hall in Rapid City, South Dakota, Kashkari said the risk of a labour-market downturn is greater than the risk of another inflation surge, but overall he sees both as unlikely
On inflation, Kashkari said it was improbable that price growth would re-accelerate to 4–5%, arguing that current tariff effects are limited. Instead, he warned inflation may linger around 3% for an extended period — above the Fed’s 2% target, but not dangerously high.
Kashkari also cautioned that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown is making it harder to gauge economic conditions, noting that while policymakers can rely on private data and anecdotal evidence, “the longer it goes on, the less confident I am that we’re reading the economy correctly.”
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
JPMorgan and Goldman estimate jobless claims fell to ~217k despite data gaps from the shutdown.
Both layoffs and hiring remain subdued, keeping the labour market stable but stagnant.
Small-business hiring continues to slow, according to Bank of America data.
Continuing claims are steady near 1.9 m, consistent with a 4.3% jobless rate.
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Info via Reuters reporting.
JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs estimate that U.S. weekly jobless claims declined to 217,000 in the week ending October 11, down from 235,000 a week earlier, suggesting that layoffs remain limited even as hiring slows.
The estimates were compiled using partial state data because the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its third week, has halted official data releases. Economists used historical seasonal adjustments to approximate missing figures from several states, including Arizona, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Tennessee.
Goldman said its model produced a range between 211,000 and 225,000, depending on assumptions for the unavailable states, while JPMorgan’s Abiel Reinhart noted that the figures “look quite decent,” indicating continued labour-market stability.
Economists describe the current backdrop as a “no-hire, no-fire” environment: job losses are minimal, but new hiring is also limited. A Bank of America Institute survey found that small-business hiring activity has slowed, with fewer new business applications listing planned wages — a sign of weakening job creation.
Continuing claims, which track people still receiving unemployment benefits, were estimated at roughly 1.9 million, little changed from the previous week. The unemployment rate, last reported at 4.3%, remains near a four-year high.
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This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
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