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Palantir Stock Trade Idea – Short setup using options flow and price context
Bias: Bearish tilt for a tactical fade of strengthThis article is for education at investingLive.com. It is not investment advice. Do your own research and make your own trading and investing decisions.
Why a bearish lean today
Options flow
Net option delta volume: -43,174 shares equivalent. Slight on-balance preference for downside or hedging.
Bearish pressure vs bullish: -2,234,165 vs +2,190,991 shares equivalent. Tilt is modest but negative.
IV context: 30-day IV 69.9 and rising with IV30 rank 76%. Elevated and rising IV often aligns with demand for protection and pullback risk.
Where bears transact: Bearish weighted average price 180.66 sits close to bullish 180.88 and near VWAP 180.69. With spot near 180.5 pre market, sellers have been leaning into strength around 180 to 181.
Price location and performance
Day range: 176.02 – 184.35. Our average entry sits near the top of the intraday band.
52-week range: 40.90 – 190.00. Average entry is ~3.87% below the 52-week high and ~95% up the 52-week band.
Momentum cooling at the margin: 1W -1.74% vs strong 1M +5.91%, 3M +18.51%, YTD +135.72%, 1Y +313.16%. After a major run, short-term softness near prior highs supports a tactical fade.
Trade plan for PLTR Stock Short
Instrument: PLTR shares or your chosen derived product
Premarket context: Quote ~$180.50 (about +0.5% vs yesterday close $179.62). Premarket orders must be limit orders.
Entries (equal size)
1st Sell $181.67
2nd Sell $182.64
3rd Sell $183.62
Average entry: $182.64
Stop: $186.59
Risk per share: $3.95 (2.16% of avg entry)
Take profits
TP1: $178.46 → +$4.18/share → +2.29% → 1.06× R
TP2: $176.43 → +$6.21/share → +3.40% → 1.57× R
TP3: $173.29 → +$9.35/share → +5.12% → 2.37× R
TP4: $171.17 → +$11.47/share → +6.28% → 2.91× R
TP5: $165.17 → +$17.47/share → +9.57% → 4.43× R
Blended reward (simple average of the 5 targets): ~2.47× R and +5.33%.
Management rules for Palantir Traders
Default rule at investingLive: when TP1 hits, move stop to entry and cancel any unfilled entry orders.
Take about 20% off at TP1 and leave most of the size for deeper targets.
All entries are equal size and all take profits are equal size unless you choose otherwise.
Thesis in one line
Options flow leans modestly bearish with elevated and rising IV while price is perched near the top of its daily and 52-week ranges, so fading strength into 181.7 to 183.6 with a tight, defined risk at 186.59 offers an attractive tactical R profile.
Education and risk notice: Markets are risky. None of the above is a promise of results. This is educational information only. Always size positions prudently, use your own judgment, and trade at your own risk.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.
Again, there’s nothing new here as we’ve been getting such comments for a long time now. The ECB is done with rate cuts and it will need a significant reason to ease further.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
Lecornu lives to fight another day, with the second no-confidence motion seeing only 144 lawmakers vote against the government. Again, that is short of the 289 votes needed to oust Lecornu and his aides.
The French benchmark CAC 40 index is now trading up 0.8% to 8,140 near the highs for the day. Meanwhile, EUR/USD remains relatively unfazed as it holds around 1.1657 – up just 0.1% currently.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
Fundamental
Overview
The USD has been weakening
across the board since Tuesday when some comments from USTR Greer suggested
that de-escalation was still the base case. The fall in Treasury yields has
also been a bearish driver for the greenback as the dovish interest rate
expectations increased.
Domestically, nothing has
changed for the US dollar as the US government shutdown continues to delay many
key US economic reports. The dollar “repricing trade” needs strong US data to
keep going, especially on the labour market side, so any hiccup on that front
is likely to keep weighing on the greenback.
The BLS announced last week
that despite the shutdown, it will release the US CPI report on October 24, so
that’s going to be a key risk event. That will need to be seen in the context
of US-China relations at that time though. If things go south on that front,
then the CPI will not matter much as growth fears will trump everything else.
On the NZD side, the RBNZ cut
by 50 bps at the last meeting bringing the OCR to 2.5%, which is the lower
bound of their estimated neutral range (2.5%-3.5%). They kept an easing bias
though as they are trying to “feel their way” as RBNZ’s Conway recently said.
On Sunday, we have the New
Zealand Q3 inflation report and that’s going to be important for them as an
upside surprise could give them a reason to skip the November cut. The market
is pricing a 92% probability of a 25 bps cut at the November meeting with a
total of 39 bps of easing expected by the end of 2026.
NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that the NZDUSD pulled all the way back into a strong resistance zone
around the 0.5760 level where we can also find the downward trendline for
confluence. The sellers are likely to step in around these levels with a defined
risk above the resistance to position for a drop into the 0.56 handle. The buyers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in for a rally
into the 0.5850 resistance next.
NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the resistance zone around the 0.5760 level and the rejection
as the sellers started to step in. There’s not much else we can add here as the
sellers will continue to pile in around these levels, while the buyers will
look for a break higher to extend the pullback into the 0.5850 resistance next.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have an upward trendline defining the current pullback. If the price
falls into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined
risk below it to position for a break above the resistance zone. The sellers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the
bearish bets into the 0.56 handle next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
We don’t have
anything on the data front for the rest of the week with the focus remaining
solely on US-China headlines. Note that the New Zealand Q3 inflation report
will be released on Sunday at 21:45 GMT.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
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