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As the clock ticks down to the FOMC rate decision at 2 PM ET, the USDJPY is perched right on key moving average support. That support is defined by the 100-day moving average at 146.175, and the pair is currently holding just above it. Buyers have leaned against the dip, perhaps taking profit from the recent selloff at this technically important level.

Still, the Fed’s decision — along with the dot plot, economic projections for inflation, GDP, and employment, the policy vote, and Chair Powell’s press conference — will determine whether this support holds or breaks.

A dovish outcome, with yields moving lower, would likely trigger a break of the 100-day moving average, exposing the 50% midpoint of the trading range since late December/early January 2022–2023 and the 2024 high, which comes in at 144.581.

On the flip side, a more hawkish tone would have traders looking for a rebound back toward resistance at the 200-day moving average near 148.68, keeping buyers in control.

Needless to say, with so much uncertainty, the news will dictate the market’s reaction. The pair is trading near the lowest levels of the past three months and sitting right against the 100-day moving average, giving sellers the upper hand as they lean on expectations for a more accommodative Fed. Whether that view is fully priced in remains uncertain — but for now, the bias tilts in favor of the downside.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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Last week, I outlined a key target for the AUDUSD at swing level highs going back to 2024 and a topside trend line. In the post yesterday, I also highlighted this area as needing to be broken, to increase the bulllish bias.

Instead, sellers were able to lean against the level and stall the rally.

The subsequent move lower, has been confined, but has allowed the rising 100-hour MA to catch up to the price. That MA currently comes in at 0.6663. The low price just reached that level and has bounced modestly.

The level remains the key target and barometer of in the short term for both buyers and sellers. If the price can be broken, it opens the door for further corrective action with the rising 200 hour moving average and the low price from Friday’s trade near 0.6628 as the next key target. Getting below both those levels as needed to show that the sellers can take back more control from the buyers.

Alternatively, if support holds, the buyers remain in firm control. The swing area between 0.66817 and 0.6694 remains a key target.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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Major European indices are closing the day with mixed results:

• German DAX +0.13%
• France’s CAC -0.40%
• UK’s FTSE 100 +0.14%
• Spain’s Ibex -0.24%
• Italy’s FTSE review was the worst performer with a decline of 1.29%

Looking at other markets, the broader US stock indices are moving lower ahead of the FOMC rate decision at 2 PM. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. The Dow industrial average is higher led by Walmart and American Express which are both up by 2.5%.

Overall, there are 12 of the 30 Dow stocks which are up over 1% the day. Below is that list:

• Walmart +2.51%

• American Express +2.43%

• Caterpillar +1.96%

• Verizon +1.40%

• Travelers +1.45%

• Salesforce +1.36%

• Procter & Gamble +1.34%

• IBM +1.31%

• Merck & Co. +1.09%

• Amgen +1.11%

• Coca-Cola +1.11%

• Honeywell +1.07%

The snapshot of the US markets show:

• Dow industrial average +0.68%
• S&P index -0.12%
• NASDAQ index -0.52%.

The small-cap Russell 2000 is higher with a gain of 25 points or 1.05% on the hopes for lower rates going forward helping the smaller companies.

In the US debt market, yields are mixed with the shorter end higher in the longer end lower ahead of the rate decision:

• 2-year yield 3.532%, +2.2 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.610%, +2 point basis points
• 10 year yield 4.035%, +0.01 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.632%, -1.4 basis points.

Looking at other markets.:

• Crude oil $-0.16 at $64.36.
• Gold is down $-3.17 at $3686
• Bitcoin is down $-1200 at $115,620

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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