News

Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise its key interest rate in either October or December, according to the majority of economists polled by Reuters. Nearly 96% of economists expect borrowing costs to increase at least 25 basis points (bps) by the end of March.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi ordered a new package of economic measures aimed at easing the burden of inflation on households and companies, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday. 

• 45 of 75 economists (60%) expect BOJ to raise rates by 25 bps this quarter
• 64 of 67 economists (96%) expect BOJ policy rate to be at 0.75% by end of March 2026
• 16 of 35 economists (46%) expect BOJ to hike rates in January 2026
• 11 of 35 economists (31%) expect BOJ to hike rates in December 2025
• 5 of 35 economists (14%) expect BOJ to hike rates in October 2025
• 18 of 27 economists (67%) don’t expect Takaichi’s premiership to delay a BOJ rate hike
• 17 of 26 economists (65%) expressed concerns about her policies on Japan’s fiscal health

Just note the polling date for this is between 14 to 20 October. Hence, the sample size of responses on Takaichi were much smaller. But at the balance, it seems that analysts are not expecting her premiership to have much of an impact as the majority are still anticipating the BOJ to hike rates one more time before year-end. And in their view, the rate hike will definitely come by the end of Q1 next year.

As things stand, traders are pricing in just ~11 bps of rate hikes by year-end with roughly one full 25 bps rate hike by March next year.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Trump will visit Japan Oct 27-29
• China commerce ministry: Will actively resolve concerns about development in China
• Japan trade balance -¥234.6B vs +¥22.2B expected
• Trump says no decision yet on meeting Putin but doesn’t want a wasted meeting
• Oil – private survey of inventory shows a large drawdown
• TD boosts 2026 copper price forecast to $5.25/lb, says “larger copper price is inevitable”
• Netflix stock beaten up: Why shares are down 6% after earnings

Markets:

• Gold up $3 to $4126
• Nikkei 225 up 0.1%
• AUD leads, USD lags

It was a quiet start to the day but it burst to life when Tokyo came online and heavy selling of gold got underway. There was a quick $130 drop to as low as $4005 before bids ahead of the big figure halted the decline. There was a quick bounce to $4040 and then choppy buying all the way up to $4125, which is fractionally above the North American close. It’s going to be a volatile day for gold as we continue from yesterday’s rout.

In Japan, the Nikkei opened 0.8% lower but was steadily bid in part due to Trump’s plans to visit Japan but mostly because late-breaking reports saying PM Takaichi will deliver a large stimulus package. USD/JPY initially traded down to 151.50 but is now nearly flat on the day at 151.85.

More broadly, there is some better risk appetite on the day and one development I would highlight is a report saying that the US is near a trade deal with India that would put tariffs at 15-16%. That’s a great rate for one of the most-protectionist countries in the world and could mean even lower rates for some other US partners.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The UK CPI report today is the one for September, with estimates seeing headline annual inflation creeping up to 4.0% (vs 3.8% in August) and core annual inflation up to 3.7% (vs 3.6% in August). If within expectations, that might seem like a case of more stubborn inflation in the UK. As such, it shouldn’t impact the BOE outlook at least for November by much.

As things stand, traders are pricing in ~85% odds of no rate change next month with just 11 bps of rate cuts priced by year-end.

Circling back to the inflation report for September, the devil will once again be in the details though.

While headline annual inflation might jump back up to 4%, analysts are expecting this to be largely attributed to base effects. In particular, driven by prices for airfares – which fell sharply in September last year and isn’t expected to drop as much this year. A much lower drop in petrol/energy prices this year are also part of that equation.

So even with a nudge back up to 4%, many are expecting this to be the peak in terms of the headline number we’ll be seeing.

As for core annual inflation, it is expected to be driven up amid a slight rise in both the goods and services components. The latter is the one to watch as it remains a sticking point for the BOE, still hovering closer to 5% for now. Similarly, food price inflation also continues to keep near 5% but continues to show signs of stabilisation and slowing. So, that will provide some comfort at least that price pressures are not exactly accelerating strongly going into Q4.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The report says that the economic stimulus is expected to exceed last year’s ¥13.9 trillion. More to come..

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin once felt like the world’s most volatile asset but now it seems to be stuck in neutral. It tried to make a move to the upside yesterday but stalled out at $114K and has been sucked right back to $108K. The sluggish market has been characterized by fake breaks to the upside in July, August and October. All of them have proven to be fleeting and it’s now near the bottom of the July-Oct range.

It’s a strange change in bitcoin behaviour as it should be benefiting from the rally in the Nasdaq and the dollar debasement trade.

It’s inevitable that bitcoin is going to make a strong move but a gain of only 17% this year given all the drama feels pyrrhic, especially since it’s right back to where it was last December.

All we can do is watch and wait for some kind of catalyst to get it moving again.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.