News

Happy jobs Friday.

I’m tempted to dismiss this report as unimportant because the Fed is in a casual wait-and-see stance but a tipping point in an economy is like Hemingway’s description of bankruptcy: Suddenly and then all at once.

Lululemon late yesterday cut guidance citing a ‘dynamic macroenvironment’ and shares are down 23% premarket. There have also been cracks elsewhere and the Beige Book described a slowing economy. Still, even with a bad jobs report it’s tough to extrapolate one month.

In any case, let’s see what the data brings. Here is the only preview you need to read, as it highlights some of the data foreshadowing the numbers, the estimates and the seasonals.

USD/JPY is up 67 pips to 144.18 just ahead of the data.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
• ECB’s Centeno: We successfully overcome inflationary process
• BoJ is said to consider smaller reductions to its bond buying
• Eurozone Q1 final GDP +0.6% vs +0.4% q/q second estimate
• Eurozone April retail sales +0.1% vs +0.1% m/m expected
• ECB’s Rehn: Decision-making at each meeting remains key
• ECB’s Holzmann: I dissented in this week’s rate decision
• ECB’s Stournaras: ECB has achieved a soft landing
• France April industrial production -1.4% vs +0.2% expected
• ECB’s Simkus: Interest rates are now at neutral
• ECB’s Kazaks: Markets should not expect cuts at every meeting
• Germany April industrial production -1.4% vs -1.0% m/m expected
• UK May Halifax house prices -0.4% vs -0.1% m/m expected
• ECB’s Villeroy: We have won battle against inflation in Europe
• ECB’s Muller: Agree with Lagarde that cycle almost finished
• Japan April leading economic index 103.4 vs 104.1 expected

It’s been a relatively calm session in terms of news and data releases. The ECB members were out in full swing making victory laps on inflation and the soft landing. They didn’t offer anything in terms of forward guidance though but at least one last rate cut remains the base case.

The most noteworthy news was the report from Bloomberg saying that the BoJ was to consider smaller reductions to its bond buying. This should be yen negative given that the BoJ would buy more bonds than previously expected under their bond tapering plan but the market hasn’t reacted much to the news.

In the markets, there’s some relative calm as traders await the US NFP report. US equities and bitcoin continued to recover the losses experienced late yesterday when the spat between Musk and Trump broke out.

Things got back to normal when we got the news overnight that Trump said to Politico in a brief call that things with Musk were going well and that the White House aides scheduled a call Friday with Musk to broker a peace. A White House source a couple of minutes before this wrap up told Reuters that there was no plan for a call between Trump and Musk.

In the American session, we have the Canadian Employment data and the US NFP report coming up. But watch out also for potential Musk-Trump headlines.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• No plan for Trump call with Musk.

In a brief call tonight with Politico, Trump said that things with Elon were going well. White House aides also reported that they scheduled a call Friday with Musk to broker a peace.

This is not necessarily a bad news. There might be other priorities than the spat between the two.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

One day after ECB delivered its eighth rate cut in this easing cycle, a coordinated message emerged from several Governing Council members: ECB is not committing to further immediate action. Latvian central banker Martins Kazaks was particularly blunt, stating that markets should not expect a rate cut at every meeting. He emphasized the value of […]

The post ECB officials signal pause yesterday’s rate cut, emphasize flexibility appeared first on Action Forex.

The major currency pairs, EUR/USD and USD/JPY, are showing restrained movement as markets await the release of key US employment data. Investors remain cautious, assessing the outlook for monetary policy in light of recent central bank decisions. Today, market participants will focus on the release of the monthly US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. According to […]

The post Euro Strengthens, Yen Consolidates Ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls Report appeared first on Action Forex.