Markets Rattle as ADP Report Sends Stocks and USD Lower

Markets Rattle as ADP Report Sends Stocks and USD Lower

We are getting mixed data from the US in the past couple of days, especially as it comes to Employment. US ADP Private Employment data came in at +37,000 jobs added vs 115,000 Expected – A relatively large miss which may scare markets going towards the NFP number. The previous release was at 60K, and […]

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Trump: Just spoke with Putin for 1 hour, 15 mins

Trump readout from call with Putin:

  • Spoke for 1 hour, 15 mins
  • Discussed Ukraine attack on Russia
  • Conversation was good but will not leads to immediate peace
  • Putin said he will have to respond to attack on planes

I find it notable that more than half of Trump’s comments are about Iran, which makes it sound like something of a pawn.

From Truth Social:

I just finished speaking, by telephone, with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia. The call lasted approximately one hour and 15 minutes. We discussed the attack on Russia’s docked airplanes, by Ukraine, and also various other attacks that have been taking place by both sides. It was a good conversation, but not a conversation that will lead to immediate Peace. President Putin did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond to the recent attack on the airfields. We also discussed Iran, and the fact that time is running out on Iran’s decision pertaining to nuclear weapons, which must be made quickly! I stated to President Putin that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon and, on this, I believe that we were in agreement. President Putin suggested that he will participate in the discussions with Iran and that he could, perhaps, be helpful in getting this brought to a rapid conclusion. It is my opinion that Iran has been slowwalking their decision on this very important matter, and we will need a definitive answer in a very short period of time!

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

BofA: We expect May non-farm payrolls to rise by 150K

Bank of America expects nonfarm payrolls to rise by 150K in May—above consensus—but warns of downside risks due to trade-related hiring volatility. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.2%, and a modest miss is unlikely to shift the Fed’s current policy stance.

Key Points:

  • Headline Forecast: BofA projects a 150K increase in payrolls, compared to April’s 177K and a consensus of 120K.

  • Sector Trends: Hiring in trade & transportation likely paused after previous front-loading due to tariff uncertainty.

  • Downside Risks: Elevated uncertainty around tariff policy could weigh on job growth, though no broad layoffs are expected yet.

  • Unemployment Rate: Expected to hold at 4.2%.

  • Policy Implications: Even if the data disappoints modestly, the Fed is likely to remain on hold.

Conclusion:

BofA sees a stronger-than-consensus May payrolls print, but notes that tariff-related risks cloud the outlook. For now, labor market resilience supports a steady Fed, barring a more significant slowdown.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Canada May S&P Global services PMI 45.6 vs 41.5 prior

  • Composite index 45.5 vs 41.7 prior
  • Confidence amongst service providers improved during May
    to its highest level since January.
  • Job losses were recorded for four straight months ahead of this data point but this month showed ‘marginal’ growth
  • confidence
    showed some improvement compared to earlier in the year
  • Latest data indicated an acceleration in input price inflation

Paul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global Market
Intelligence, said:
“Canada’s service sector continued to struggle in the
face of ongoing tariff and residual political uncertainty
during May, with activity and new business volumes
again declining markedly. Panellists reported hesitancy
in committing to new work, with the unknown path of
international trade policies and tariffs remaining a
prevalent theme.
“That said, there are some hopes of greater stability in
the year ahead, with confidence improving since April
and helping to support some marginal employment
growth as firms look ahead to higher workloads in the
months ahead.
“Still, cost pressures remain a concern, with operating
expenses rising to a greater degree in May. Wages,
tariffs and supplier charges in general were all noted
as factors underpinning higher costs. This meant
that service providers to raise their own prices to the
greatest degree in a year.”

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.