ICYMI – SNB’s Tschudin dismisses the monthly inflation number as just one data point
Data on Tuesday showed Swiss inflation falling to its lowest level level since COVID.
- consumer prices fell by 0.1% y/y in May, lowest since March 2021
- the SNB has a 0-2% target range
Swiss National Bank (SNB) board member Petra Tschudin commented on May inflation data.
- SNB won’t be distracted by monthly inflation numbers
- “We’re focused on the medium term”
- “this is just one data point”
Head of the Bank, Chair Martin Schlegel, has repeatedly emphasised that individual month negative numbers are a possibility and that the Band doesn’t necessarily have to react to them.
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The SNB next meet on June 19:
- markets are pricing a 25bp rate cut around 70%, from 0.25 to zero
- markets are pricing a return to -0.25 around 30%
Negative inflation is being caused largely by the strong Swiss franc, for example the price of imported goods by 2.4%, along with the drop in energy prices.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
Barclays turning less negative on oil prices
A Barclays note says they are turning less cautious on oil
- spot fundamentals are holding up better than expected
- de-escalation in trade tensions is supporting a resilient demand outlook
- supply has been largely in line expectations
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
CrowdStrike shares drop on weak revenue guidance
Japan to form think tank focused on Trump tariffs and Taiwan
Japan is set to launch a new think tank to examine how economic security concerns influence supply chains and related sectors, according to Nikkei. The move comes amid growing unease over trade tensions and the situation around Taiwan.
The think tank will operate under the National Security Secretariat (NSS) and form part of a broader strategy to strengthen Japan’s ability to manage economic security risks. Details of the initiative will be included in the government’s upcoming annual economic and fiscal policy guidelines, expected later this month.
NSS will “examine risks faced by industry, strengthen economic intelligence capabilities and comprehensive think tank functions, and reinforce critical infrastructure.”
Info via Nikkei (Japanese media)
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
Trump’s big boosted steel tariffs will take effect from 1201 am on June 4
White House says the boosted steel tariffs will hit at 1201 am on Wednesday, June 4, 2025.
- UK steel tariffs will remain at 25% though
- everyone else doubled to 50%
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7577; (P) 1.7617; (R1) 1.7652; More… EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.7245 continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. . Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.7245 at 1.7745 will solidify the case that fall from 1.8554 has completed as a correction. Next target is 61.8% retracement at 1.8054. On […]
The post EUR/AUD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
Job openings showed surprising increase to 7.4 million in April
McDonald’s is bringing back the snack wrap to U.S. restaurants next month
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar firms as the trade war ebbs
- JOLTS April job openings 7.391M vs 7.100M expected
- China’s top diplomat meets US ambassador to China – report
- White House confirms that it wants best trade offers by Wednesday
- Fed’s Goolsbee: We will have to wait and see if tariffs have a big or small impact
- Fed’s Cook: Monetary policy is well-positioned for a range of goals
- Fed’s Bostic: Best monetary policy approach now is ‘patience’
- US April factory orders -3.7% vs -3.1% expected
- New Zealand GDT Price Index -1.6%
- Fed’s Logan talks about the Fed’s framework, says it should be robust
Markets:
- Gold down $27 to $3351
- US 10-year yields flat at 4.46%
- WTI crude oil up 90-cents to $63.43
- S&P 500 up 0.6%
- USD leads, JPY lags
The US dollar put in a solid performance today and I can pin it on a few things. The rebound was mainly a retracement of yesterday’s fall and that helps to encapsulate it. 1) Yesterday there were some real worries about Russian retaliation from the drone attacks, they haven’t launched any nuclear weapons so that’s good so far. 2) The China-US trade talk is gathering momentum with diplomats talking today and the White House indicating a looming call between Trump and Xi. 3) Fears about Trump re-escalating the trade war after the TACO fiasco are fading, as he appears to be sticking to his plan. 4) JOLTS job openings improved in April despite Liberation Day angst.
The main beneficiary was USD/JPY as it climbed 135 pips to 144.05, wiping out yesterday’s decline. The pair bottomed early in Europe and gains were steady after that, finishing near the highs of the day.
The euro similarly slid and mostly erased yesterday’s gains to leave it largely flat on the week. The market will wait on trade headlines, the ECB and Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.
The dollar gains against the commodity currencies were subdued as the same trade sentiment helped to lift commodities priced and equities. Futures had been solidly negative in Europe but the main US indexes steadily gathered momentum with chip names leading the way.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.