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The sources say that the US has sent a “long” and “tough” list of requests to Vietnam as part of tariff negotiations between the two countries. One part of that being a call for Vietnam to effectively cut its reliance on Chinese supply chains. This was always going to be one of the trickier deals to work out as Vietnam is playing this on the fence for the most part.

If you must know, the US is pretty mad about the whole situation as Vietnam is a hot spot for China to get involved in origin washing as noted previously here.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

This refers to the communique yesterday by the Trump administration saying that they want countries to make their “best offers” on trade talks by Wednesday. Reuters is reporting that the EU has not received such a demand with trade commissioner Sefcovic set to meet with his US counterpart Greer later in the week.

Tick tock, tick tock. 36 days to go.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Key factors for May rate decision were domestic, not tariffs.
• We have not seen particular inflation surprises.
• Labour market has loosened somewhat.
• Pay growth is above levels consistent with a 2% inflation target but lower than expected in February.
• Path of slowing pay growth is intact.
• I was undecided ahead of May policy decision.

The UK continues to have the highest core inflation rate among the major economies.

• I will not make any prediction about June rate decision.

They will hold rates steady of course and this is also what the market fully expects.

• Path for rates remains downwards.
• How far and how quickly rates will fall is shrouded in a lot more uncertainty.
• Uncertainty reflects international situation.
• Impact of fragmented global trade is negative for global growth.
• Uncertainty will delay UK businesses investment decisions.
• Impact on prices is ambiguous.
• We are not seeing the same impact on supply chains and inflation we did in 2021.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Voted to hold rates unchanged in May as labour market not loosened as expected.
• Services price inflation above what I view as consistent with getting CPI back to target.
• My switch in vote from a 50 bps cut to a hold reflected spillover from financial market volatility.
• It’s better to make bolder moves on rates than hold for longer.
• Need to be concerned that inflation at 4% could alter wage and price setting dynamics.

As a reminder, Mann surprisingly voted for a 50 bps cut in February because she saw downside risks to employment but at the most recent decision she changed her mind and voted for keeping rates steady (the BoE cut rates by 25 bps).

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Disinflation process has continued.
• All MPC agree on disinflation, I see greater downside risks.
• Supply chain data points more clearly to disinflation than noisy wage data.

Core inflation stalled around 3.2% and it’s now back up to 3.8% but they are saying that disinflation has continued. Go figure…

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.