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The AUDUSD is sharply higher today, up 0.84% on the session, and making a decisive break away from a significant technical confluence of moving averages. The rally has propelled the pair above:

• The 100-hour MA at 0.64403

• The 200-day MA at 0.6445

• The 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.6450

That tight MA cluster had previously acted as a magnet for price and a ceiling during consolidation last week, but today’s move marks a clear shift in momentum. The bullish break opened the door for a retest of the key swing area between 0.6493 and 0.6500, which previously capped multiple tops in May (see red numbered points on chart). Sellers leaned against the high of that area and pushed the price back to the downside.

To the downside, traders will now look at recent tops and bottoms including a high and low from today near 0.6470. Below that level and traders would look toward the cluster of moving averages between 0.6440 and 0.6450.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Ukraine is now saying:

• Ukraine handed over to Russia delegation a list of deported children to be returned home.
• Ukraine and Russia are preparing a new exchange of prisoners of war.

Ukraine and Russia did meet for talks today. Those talks are now over. We could see more headlines from both Russia and Ukraine.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• No love for the dollar to start June trading
• US futures hold lower ahead of North America trading
• Crude oil rallies as OPEC+ hikes output by less than expected
• What are the current interest rate expectations for the major central banks?
• EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic will meet US Trade Representative Greer on Wednesday
• Japan prime minister Ishiba: We have no intention to compromise on US tariffs
• Eurozone May final manufacturing PMI 49.4 vs 49.4 prelim
• UK May final manufacturing PMI 46.4 vs 45.1 prelim
• UK April mortgage approvals 60.46k vs 63.00k expected
• UK May Nationwide house prices +0.5% vs +0.1% m/m expected
• Switzerland Q1 GDP +0.5% vs +0.4% q/q expected

Markets:

• JPY leads, USD lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.4%
• US 10-year yields up 1 bps to 4.428%
• Gold up 2.0% to $3,354.98
• WTI crude up 4.3% to $63.40
• Bitcoin down 1.5% to $104,116

It’s a brand new week and a brand new month, but it’s the same old story for the dollar.

The greenback is getting roughed up once again as trade uncertainty continues amid the policy incoherence on Trump tariffs. On Friday, the US court moved to temporarily reinstate the reciprocal tariffs before Trump himself threatened to double steel and aluminum tariffs. And then, we saw things hit a bit of a roadblock with China. The latter in particular is something that might stir up more pessimism in the week(s) ahead.

As such, risk sentiment is slightly on the defensive and the dollar is not finding much love. EUR/USD moved up from 1.1370 to 1.1435 before keeping around 1.1415 now – up 0.6% on the day. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is slipping all the way down to 142.75 now – down 0.9% today.

The dollar is not seeing much reprieve elsewhere, with GBP/USD up 0.6% to 1.3535 and AUD/USD up 0.7% to 0.6480 currently. USD/CAD is also marked down by 0.3% to near 1.3700 with the low earlier touching 1.3675.

European stocks are leaning towards the softer side, siding with US futures amid the ongoing uncertainty on trade/tariffs. S&P 500 futures are down 0.4% but at least off earlier lows, with tech shares lagging a little more to start the week.

In other markets, gold is seen picking up nicely amid the latest developments with the precious metal up 2% to $3,354. Meanwhile, oil is also a strong beneficiary as OPEC+ moved to hike output by less than expected over the weekend. WTI crude is up over 4% to $63.40, extending gains after the opening gap higher from earlier in the day.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.