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The Australian Dollar (AUD) moves little against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, after registering losses in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair may lose ground as the AUD could struggle due to escalating United States (US)-China trade tensions.
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Gold washing out from its record high, back under US$4290
“Gold is down because …” Are y’all ready for the tedious hindsight narratives that’ll arrive hours after the fact?
That’s a shame. ‘Cause I don’t have any.
It’s a wild session, slammed from its parabolic high.
There will be more volatility to come.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
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Seoul warns of FX risks as Trump pushes for US$350 bn upfront payment
South Korean Finance Minister Koo said it’s uncertain whether Trump will accept Seoul’s opposition to a US$350 bn upfront investment.
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Seoul warns a one-time payment could destabilise FX markets, risking a crisis.
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Koo raised the issue with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, who agreed to convey Korea’s concerns.
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The July trade deal remains pending amid disputes over investment funding.
Info via Yonhap.
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South Korea’s Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol said it remains uncertain whether President Donald Trump will accept Seoul’s opposition to a US$350 billion upfront investment tied to their July trade deal.
Speaking in Washington, Koo said such a large one-off payment could destabilise Korea’s foreign-exchange market, potentially sparking financial stress similar to the 1997 Asian crisis.
Koo raised the issue with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who acknowledged Seoul’s concerns and pledged to relay them to senior officials including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
He said U.S. officials “understand Korea’s position,” but it’s unclear if Trump will agree. The deal, which would lower U.S. auto tariffs to 15% in exchange for investment commitments, remains pending amid talks over funding terms and structure.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
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PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0949 vs. 7.0968 previous
On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.0949 compared to the previous day’s fix of 7.0968 and 7.1154 Reuters estimate. -
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0949 (vs. estimate at 7.1154)
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%.
The previous close was 7.1230
The setting today at 7.0949 is the strongest for CNY since 15 October 2024.
PBoC injects CNY 164.8bln via 7-day reverse repos, rate at unchanged 1.40%
- the net drain today is 244.2bn yuan
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
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NZD/USD gains ground above 0.5700 on Fed’s dovish remarks
The NZD/USD pair trades in positive territory near 0.5730 during the early Asian session on Friday. The ongoing US government shutdown and expectations of US interest rate cuts drag the US Dollar (USD) lower against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). -
China’s Canadian oil imports hit record as Beijing shuns US crude
China’s imports of Canadian oil are set for a record October, exceeding 5 mn bbl so far.
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70% of Vancouver shipments are heading to China as it reduces reliance on US crude.
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Canadian heavy crude prices have strengthened on Asian demand.
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Vancouver crude now trades at a premium to Texas-loaded Canadian barrels for the first time since 2024.
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China’s crude imports from Canada are on track for a record month in October, as Chinese refiners pivot away from US supplies amid escalating trade tensions, according to Vortexa ship-tracking data. Report comes via Bloomberg.
Nearly 5 million barrels of crude have departed Vancouver so far this month — the highest volume for the first half of any month on record. More than 70% of those cargoes are bound for Chinese ports, with most of the rest heading to the US West Coast or trans-shipment points near Los Angeles.
Chinese buyers have been stockpiling foreign crude at more than 500,000 barrels a day, taking advantage of steep discounts on Russian and Iranian oil while diversifying supply sources. The latest uptick in Canadian shipments comes after Beijing imposed retaliatory port fees on US-linked vessels, raising freight costs for American crude.
Rising Asian demand has strengthened Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude, which was trading at a $10.20 discount to WTI on Thursday — the narrowest since July, despite seasonal weakness in Q4.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
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September Singapore Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX) +6.9% y/y (vs. expected -2.1%)
Singapore’s exports rose 6.9% y/y in September, beating expectations for a 2.1% fall.
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Gains were led by electronics and shipments to China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
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US-bound exports fell 9.9% amid new American tariffs.
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Government still expects 1–3% export growth for 2025, with slower momentum ahead.
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Pharma tariff implementation delayed pending negotiations.
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Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) jumped 6.9% year-on-year in September, a much stronger performance than economists had expected, thanks largely to a rebound in electronics shipments, according to data from Enterprise Singapore.
- expected -2.1%, prior -11.5%
For the m/m, +13.0%
- expected +9.0%, prior -8.9%
Export gains were driven by stronger demand from Hong Kong, Taiwan and China, while shipments to the EU, US and Indonesia fell.
Exports to the United States dropped 9.9% from a year earlier after falling nearly 30% in August, reflecting the impact of the 10% tariff Washington imposed on Singaporean goods.
Authorities said earlier that front-loading of shipments ahead of U.S. tariffs supported trade in the first half of the year, but warned of slower growth ahead.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD extends the rally above $4,350 amid safe-haven flows
Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its upside to around $4,365 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal holds positive ground after reaching a record high of $4,380 in the previous session. -
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1154 – Reuters estimate
People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%.
How the process works:
- Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day’s trading.
- The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.
- Intervention: If the yuan’s value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency’s value.
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You’ll have noted the PBOC have been bumping up the yuan in this setting, USD/CNY below 7.10.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
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