News

Fundamental Overview

The USD came under some
pressure on Friday as the risk-off sentiment caused by Trump’s threat of
substantially increasing tariffs on China weighed on Treasury yields. Over the
weekend, we had more soothing comments from Trump and other US officials which
triggered a recovery in risk sentiment.

The positive mood weighed a
bit on the greenback but eventually the risk mood deteriorated again as US
Treasury Secretary Bessent poured some cold water on the weekend hype and the
Chinese imposed special port fees on US related vessels as countermeasures
against the US previous port fees.

Domestically, nothing has
changed for the US dollar as the US government shutdown continues to delay many
key US economic reports. The dollar “repricing trade” needs strong US data to
keep going, especially on the labour market side, so any hiccup on that front
is likely to keep weighing on the greenback.

The market pricing shifted
more dovish after the latest US-China escalation with 48 bps of easing by
year-end and 122 bps cumulatively by the end of 2026. The BLS announced last
week that despite the shutdown, it will release the US CPI report on October 24,
so that’s going to be a key risk event.

In case we get hot data, we
will likely see a hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations with the
December cut being priced out. Conversely, a soft report shouldn’t change much
in terms of pricing, but it will likely weigh on the greenback anyway. This
will of course be taken in context of the US-China relations by then.

On the JPY side, the
currency strengthened following the risk-off sentiment triggered by the US-China
escalation. Domestically, Takaichi is having some trouble securing enough votes
to become the next Prime Minister after the loss of Komeito support. The voting
is expected to take place next week. On the monetary policy side, nothing has
changed. Traders are assigning just a 18% probability of a rate hike at the
October meeting given the political uncertainty and 33% chance of a rate hike
by year-end.

USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY eventually rejected the top trendline around the 153.00 handle
and pulled back into the support zone around the 151.00 handle. There’s not
much else we can see here but the buyers will likely continue to step in around
the support, while the sellers will look for shorts around the top trendline.

USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with the pullback into the support
zone and the bounce following the positive weekend comments from Trump and
other US officials. Bessent’s comments and the Chinese countermeasures triggered
some risk-off again.

USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 152.50 level. This is where
we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the zone to
position for a break below the 151.00 support. The buyers, on the other hand,
will look for upside breakouts to target new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have Fed Chair Powell speaking
although he’s unlikely to change his stance given that we haven’t got anything new
on the data front. For now, we know that only the US CPI will be published
despite the shutdown, which is scheduled for Friday October 24.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Inflation is a thief. It sneaks into your pocket at night, light on its feet, and by the time you wake up your money has less bite. Bread costs more. Rent climbs. Gas makes you wince. Everyone knows the feeling. The world keeps turning, but your paycheck seems to shrink. So what do you do? You find something that fights back.

For centuries that answer was gold. People hoarded it, wore it, buried it. Armies marched to steal it. Kings minted it into coins. When paper money failed, gold stood tall. Now there is a new challenger. Bitcoin. Born in the wreckage of the 2008 crash, it has grown from an experiment into a global phenomenon. And now the argument begins. Is gold still the hedge against inflation, or has Bitcoin stolen the crown?

The Allure of Bitcoin in an Inflated World

Pull up the current Bitcoin price on OKX and you will see it trading around 113,000 dollars. That number should stop you in your tracks. From nothing to six figures in a little over a decade. It is proof, to believers at least, that Bitcoin is more than hype. They see a hedge built on hard rules. Twenty one million coins and not one more. Scarcity baked into the code itself. Governments can print dollars until they drown. Bitcoin does not bend.

Gold is scarce too. Mines dig deeper every year to find less and less. But it is still out there, waiting to be pulled from the ground. Bitcoin is different. Its supply is written into math. You can argue about whether that makes it better or worse, but you cannot argue that it is predictable. And that predictability is what draws so many to it in times when money is soft.

Gold, the Old Warrior

Gold needs no introduction. It has survived empire after empire. Pharaohs, conquistadors, bankers, all measured their wealth in its shine. It never rusts. It never disappears. It does not need a battery or a network. It sits heavy in your hand, a lump of metal that has carried value across thousands of years.

But gold has its flaws. It is slow. It does not earn yield unless you lend it. It does not multiply. It stores. That is its purpose. For a hedge, storage can be enough. Yet if you want growth, gold does not deliver the way Bitcoin has. From the 1980s to the early 2000s, gold barely moved while inflation kept climbing. The hedge worked, but only in the sense that it did not collapse.

Bitcoin’s Volatility

Let’s be blunt. Crypto is not steady. It climbs like a rocket and then plunges without warning. In 2018 it lost more than 80 percent of its value. In 2022 it shed over half its peak. That is not the calm haven most people want when inflation hits.

Yet volatility has another side. Every crash so far has been followed by a recovery. And each recovery climbed higher than the last. Over time, the curve has pointed up. Sharp drops for those who panic. Sharp gains for those who wait. If gold is the tortoise, Bitcoin is the hare. Wild, unpredictable, but capable of covering far more ground.

Tradition Against Technology

Gold carries weight you cannot ignore. Nations hold it in vaults. Religions crown it in temples. People wear it for love and status. You cannot sweep away thousands of years of trust. Bitcoin cannot match that cultural memory.

What Bitcoin brings is code. Pure scarcity. No temple, no vault, no politician deciding how much exists. A network of machines that all enforce the same rule. Twenty one million and done. It is the first asset in history with absolute scarcity. And that is something gold, for all its history, cannot claim.

Numbers That Matter

From 1971 to today, gold rose from less than 100 dollars an ounce to more than 3,000. That beats inflation. It proved itself. But look at Bitcoin. From under 1,000 dollars in 2017 to more than 113,000 now. Nothing in modern markets has moved like that. If you measure purely by protection against inflation, Bitcoin’s record so far is staggering.

Of course, those numbers hide pain. Buy at the wrong moment and you could wait years just to get back to even. With gold, that pain is smaller. It may drift, but it rarely collapses in the same way.

The Choice

Which works better? The answer depends on what you want. If you want peace of mind, gold is the safer pick. It will not vanish. It will not lose 80 percent in a year. If you want growth, Bitcoin is unmatched. But you must accept the risk, the swings, the gut punches.

Many people choose both. Gold for weight and history. Bitcoin for scarcity and future. The combination hedges not only against inflation but against the uncertainty of which asset will rule the next century.

Inflation is not going away. Your dollars will keep shrinking. The real question is how you fight back. Do you choose the metal trusted since Pharaohs ruled the Nile? Or do you choose the digital asset rewriting the rules of money in real time? Both answers can work. Both have flaws. The only wrong move is to do nothing and let inflation eat you alive.

This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

The report says that Chinese rare earth magnet companies are facing a tougher time in trying to seek export license applications since September already. That is even before Beijing’s announcement last week here.

One of the sources noted that the review process is made much lengthier, in what looks to be a bid by China to further tighten its grip on products essential for use in military and commercial technology. The source also noted that applications are now being returned more often with requests for “additional information”.

Meanwhile, the approval process is also taking longer albeit still within the supposed 45 business days deadline set out by the commerce ministry. However, the overall feeling is that the process has moved back a step similar to how it was in April when Beijing really toughened its stance on rare earth exports to push the US into conceding on tariffs.

As a reminder, this is one of China’s biggest ace card in dealing with the US and it doesn’t look like they are being bashful about using it.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUR/USD steadies in the early European session on Tuesday, but remains close to multi-month lows, trading at 1.1590 at the time of writing.

China’s Commerce Ministry said in a statement on Tuesday that Beijing “hopes to resolve concerns through dialogue.”

The GBP/JPY pair trades 0.8% to near 201.40 during the European trading session on Tuesday.

• China urges the US to correct mistakes
• US moves affect global supply chain stability

Such comments are not new. The Chinese continue to repeat that they don’t want to escalate things and resolve the issues via dialogue.

Update:

Reuters sources are now saying that China is increasing oversight of export license applications for rare earth magnets (this reportedly started last week). Looks like arm wrestling now with China pressing the US to roll back the latest measures (US port fees on China-linked vessels).

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, October 14:

The Dutch government took control over Nexperia to prevent a situation in which the goods produced by the firm would become unavailable in an emergency.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) faces selling pressure against its peers on Tuesday after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for the three months ending in August.