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United States Net Long-Term TIC Flows above expectations ($35.2B) in February: Actual ($112B)

The GBP/JPY pair continued to edge lower on Wednesday, falling toward the 188 zone and marking a daily decline of nearly 0.9%. The cross remains anchored near the bottom of its range between 187.668 and 189.664, reinforcing the weight of recent selling pressure.

USD/JPY price analysis: Dollar struggles amid trade tensions, pair capped below key moving averages

Canceled freight vessel sailings from China are up and will ripple through the supply chain as the trade war impact on the global economy intensifies.

Nvidia said in a statement that its exports help alleviate the U.S. trade deficit.

Here are the forecasts from Deutsche Bank for the years ahead:

Deutsche Bank’s reasoning is as follows.

Key medium-term USD bearish drivers:

• Supportive EU vs. US fiscal stance: thanks to German fiscal policy.
• Valuations: Purchasing power parity in the 1.25-1.30 range acts as medium-term anchor for EUR/USD amid geopolitical uncertainty.
• US asset risk premium & weaponing risk: Persistent global diversification away from USD assets, driven by US economic policy unpredictability and concerns over sanctions.
• US cyclical slowdown: A weaker growth trajectory to achieve medium-term inflation objectives, with added drag from unpredictable policymaking.

Short-term outlook:

• YE-25 forecasts remain conservative.
• The likely dovish ECB reaction function in the near-term will constrain the widening in short-term EU-US interest rate differentials plus broader uncertainty on US policy path in coming months.

Risks:

• A faster US climbdown on aggressive trade policy and a more growth-supportive US budget bill is likely to slow down the dollar downtrend, while a continued erratic shift in trade policy combined with larger than expected fiscal tightening is likely to lead to accelerated dollar downside.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A week after President Trump specifically targeted Chris Krebs in an executive order, the former head of CISA has left SentinelOne.