News

President Donald Trump said the U.S. is considering ending its cooking oil trade with China in retaliation for Beijing refusing to buy U.S. soybeans.

• Even with easing, mon pol would still be ‘mildly restrictive’
• Policy not on a pre-set path
• Inflation risks more contained but tariffs will still push up prices
• Favourable financial conditions will support households (translation: stock prices went up)
• Downside risks to jobs market have risen

This is dovish but the market mover right now is Trump’s fresh attack on China.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The IRS raised the capital gains brackets for 2026. Here is how much investors can make and still pay 0% capital gains taxes.

The bank paired better-than-expected results with a more optimistic profit outlook.

Here we go again:

• Trump says China not buying US soybeans is an ‘economically hostile act’
• Says they are considering terminating business with China to do with cooking oil and other elements of trade as retribution
• We can easily produce cooking oil ourselves

Trump’s tweet:

I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act. We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution. As an example, we can easily produce Cooking Oil ourselves, we don’t need to purchase it from China.

Now we’re fighting over cooking oil?

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

This is certainly the chart of the day. The Russell 2000 is far outpacing other US major indexes today after strong earnings from Wells Fargo. That has the financials-heavy Russell 2000 up almost 2% on the day but — more importantly — its at a record high and breaking above the major double top from 2021 and 2024.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

There is one area where everyone seems to agree:

1. The US is calling for China to boost domestic demand.
2. Today, the IMF called for China to boost domestic demand
3. China itself is trying to boost domestic demand.

In a speech on CCTV today, Chinese Premier Li Qiang said China should be “continuously forming new growth points for expanding domestic demand.” He also doubled down on a crackdown on curbing ‘disorderly competition’. That last line has boosted optimism in Chinese stocks but risks creating global inflation.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Every weekday, the Investing Club releases the Homestretch; an actionable afternoon update just in time for the last hour of trading.

The USDCHF moved lower during Fed Chair Powell’s Q&A session, extending a decline that began earlier in the day when the pair fell back below its 100-hour moving average (blue line) at 0.80327. That drop also pushed the price under a swing area between 0.8017 and 0.80233, which in turn opened the door for a retest of the 200-hour moving average.

Recall that late Friday, the pair tumbled sharply following the U.S.–China tariff headlines, breaking below the 200-hour MA for the first time in weeks. On Monday, the market staged a brief rebound after President Trump softened some of his weekend remarks, but upside momentum faded as sellers reasserted control.

Looking ahead, the 200-hour moving average, the 50% retracement level, and the natural resistance near 0.8000 form a critical downside pivot zone. A decisive move below and sustained break through this area would strengthen the bearish bias, exposing support targets at 0.7986 followed by the broken 38.2% retracement at 0.79588.

Conversely, if buyers can once again defend this zone, it would signal another hold of key support, keeping the pair confined to its broader consolidation range.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

I’ve been writing for years about the bullish setup in copper and prices hit a record last week.

Bloomberg has an interesting article today about smelter benchmark prices breaking down.

The global copper industry has long relied on a single benchmark for sales of semi-processed ores known as concentrates. Copper smelters receive processing fees called treatment and refining charges, or TC/RCs, to turn concentrates into metal.

These fees — which are deducted from the value of the metal contained in concentrates — are crucial to keep the furnaces running, as they typically account for almost one-third of smelters revenues.

But unprecedented supply disruptions, smelting expansions, as well as strong buying interest from traders, have pushed benchmark TC/RCs to record lows in 2025.

Freeport McMoran said it plans to break away from that benchmark as processing fees collapse and potentially turn negative. That dynamic doesn’t really make sense to me but it strange markets, strange things happen.

For all the talk of building out massive amounts of electricity for AI and EVs, there is no plan to get the copper to wire it all.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.