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The USD moved lower after the data that showed inflation was under control – for now. The trade data saw a big improvement. The personal income data was solid.
Not so hot is Pres. Trump tweeted that China violated the trade agreement:
Stocks are lower. Yields are near unchanged.
The USD moved lower initially, but is moving modestly higher after the initial move.
EURUSD: The EURSUD moved above the 100-hour MA at 1.13342. The high reached 1.1357. The 1.1362 and 1.13803 are tatgets. THe high today reached 1.1389.
USDJPY: The USDJPY moved away from the 100 and 200-hour MA between 144.98 and 143.85. That area will now be resistance on a rebound.
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD moved higher and away from the 200-hour MA at 1.3475, but stalled at the higher 100-hour MA at 1.3501. Earlier today, the high stalled at the 100 hour MA increases the levels importance going forward.
USDCHF: The USDCHF has solid resistance against the 100/200 hour MA and the 50% of the range since April. That area comes between 0.8252 to 0.8257. ON the downside, a swing araa floor comes between 0.8193 to 0.8212. Getting below is more bearish.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Slightly higher than expected figures but nothing that will worry the ECB for the time being.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
OPEC+ may discuss an oil output hike larger than 411,000 bpd for July. The meeting is tomorrow. Oil is of course down on the news on higher than expected output hike.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
It’s been a slow session as we just got a couple of low tier data releases and very limited newsflow. The inflation readings from Spain, Italy and Germany showed some more progress on inflation but nothing notable. The data won’t change the ECB plan of cutting rates in June.
Nonetheless, the ECB members are starting to look for a pause after the June’s reduction. Today, ECB’s Panetta, who is a dove, sounded more neutral as he said that there’s now reduced room to cut rates further given that they are now in their estimated range of neutral rates (1.75%-2.25%).
In the American session, we get the US PCE price index data, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Canadian GDP report and the final UMich consumer sentiment. Neither of those should change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but always watch out in case we get notable deviations from the expected numbers.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Today at 08:30 ET/12:30 GMT, we get the US April PCE price index data which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. This isn’t generally a strong market moving release because the data is old news given that it can be calculated pretty accurately from the CPI, PPI and import prices data.
WSJ’s FedWatcher Nick Timiraos shared on his X account the estimates from professional forecasters. The figures show another improvement in April. Again, this is already priced in, so don’t take too much out of it. Markets react more and change future expectations based on the CPI and PPI data because they are actually NEW information.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
EUR/USD
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For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8182; (P) 0.8265; (R1) 0.8312; More…. Range trading continues in USD/CHF and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 0.8187 will resume the fall from 0.8475 to retest 0.8038 low. On the upside, above 0.8346 will bring stronger rise to 0.8475. Firm break there will extend the corrective pattern from […]
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