News

• Prior was -2.9%

This is a nice rebound after poor Q2 reading.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

New Zealand Manufacturing Sales increased to 1.1% in 3Q from previous -2.9%

New Zealand Manufacturing Sales increased to 1.1% in 3Q from previous -2.9%

The Federal Reserve (Fed) went ahead with a 25 basis points rate cut, taking the target range to 3.50–3.75%. But the tone around the decision mattered just as much as the move.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) went ahead with a 25 basis points rate cut, taking the target range to 3.50–3.75%. But the tone around the decision mattered just as much as the move.

Brazil Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (15%)

The calendar is looking a bit top-heavy for the Thursday session in Asia. While we have some Japanese flow data and a check-in on the UK housing market, the main event is inarguable — the Australian labor market report.

We kick things off at 2145 GMT with New Zealand Manufacturing Sales for Q3. The prior read was a soft -2.9% and there is no consensus but I would expect a bounce.

Then, attention turns to Tokyo at 23:50. We’ll get the Business Survey Index (BSI) Large Manufacturing for Q4. Again, there is no consensus but the prior was +3.8%.

The Main Event is Australian Employment Data

At 00:30, the trading will pick up significantly as the Australian Bureau of Statistics drops the November employment numbers. Last month we saw a solid print, but the expectations are for a bit of a cooldown this time around to a still-robust +20.0K. I strongly suspect the RBA saw these numbers before yesterday’s hawkish hold.

Here is what economist are looking for:

• Employment Change: Expected to add 20.0k jobs (down from the hefty 42.2k prior).

• Unemployment Rate: Expected to tick up slightly to 4.4% (from 4.3%).

• Participation Rate: Expected to hold steady at 67.0%.

The “full time” employment component (Prior 55.3k) is always be key. If we see headline weakness but full-time jobs remain robust, the AUD should stay firm but watch Feb hike pricing data, which is currently a shade below 25%. If the unemployment rate ticks up beyond 4.4% forget about the Feb hike and AUD will slip.

Also of note at 00:01 GMT is the UK RICS Housing Survey. It’s expected to slide further to -21 from -19, signaling continued pressure in the British property market.

Here is the schedule for the session:

21:45

• NZ: Manufacturing Sales (Q3) – Prior: -2.9%

23:50

• JP: Foreign Bond Investment – Prior: -771.3B

• JP: Foreign Invest JP Stock – Prior: 655.6B

• JP: Business Survey Index (BSI) Large Manufacturing (Q4) – Prior: 3.8%

00:01

• UK: RICS Housing Survey (Nov) – Exp: -21 / Prior: -19

00:30

• AU: Employment Change (Nov) – Exp: 20.0k / Prior: 42.2k

• AU: Unemployment Rate (Nov) – Exp: 4.4% / Prior: 4.3%

• AU: Participation Rate (Nov) – Exp: 67.0% / Prior: 67.0%

There are no major speeches scheduled but we will watch out for the fallout from the Fed and the usual tirades from Trump on Truth Social.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Powell signals neutral policy stance as non tariff driven inflation fades
• Fed Powell:Layoffs, hiring remain low. Rates are now in a plausible range of neutral.
• The line-by-line comparison of the October and the December FOMC statements
• The Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.50% to 3.75%
• White House economic advisor Hassett: Fed has plenty of room to cut rates
• BOC Macklem: Markets can count on us taking decisions one at a time
• Crude oil inventories see a drawdown at -1.812 million versus -2.310 million estimate
• A line by line comparison of the October and December BOC statements.
• BOC Macklem: Given the current balance of risks, the policy rate is at the right level
• The Bank of Canada keeps rates unchanged at 2.25% at the December 2025 meeting.
• US employment cost index for Q3 0.8% versus 0.9% estimate
• investingLive European FX news wrap: Final countdown to the last Fed decision of 2025

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points as expected to 3.5% to 3.75%. The also announced that they would be purchasing bills in what traders and analysts are calling a mini-QE. The cut was expected to be a hawkish cut. It was more neutral in that the Fed chair emphasized that the Fed is “well-positioned”.

The vote split came in at 9–3, with Fed Governors Goolsbee and Schmid dissenting in favor of keeping rates unchanged. Meanwhile, Governor Miran dissented in the opposite direction, calling for a 50-basis-point cut.

The dot plot shows that four additional Fed presidents preferred to hold rates steady, suggesting a larger bloc of hawkish resistance underneath the headline decision. While the full list of dissenters isn’t yet confirmed, it’s highly likely that Dallas Fed President Logan and Cleveland Fed President Hammack were among them—both are well-known inflation hawks and will serve on the FOMC in 2026.

The identities of the remaining two “hold” voters are still unclear, but based on the composition of the upcoming rotation, it is safe to conclude that Goolsbee and Schmid will be replaced next year by presidents who leaned toward keeping rates unchanged. That shift could be more hawkish (depending on the other two) or unchanged in 2026.

We should expect to hear more from those hawkish members in the next day or two as they explain their stance and begin shaping the narrative around the Fed’s evolving policy bias.

Looking at the projections for end of year GDP, Unemployment rate and PCE inflation (headline and core) showed:

• GDP projected higher to 2.3% from 1.8%
• Unemployment projected unchanged at 4.4%
• PCE inflation projected lower at 2.4% from 2.6%
• PCE Core projected lower at 2.5% vs 2.6%
• The year end Fed Funds target projected unchanged at 3.4%

Key Takeaways from the Powell press conference comments.

During Powell’s press conference, key takeaways were:

• Powell signaled that policy is now in the plausible range of neutral, with no preset path and decisions remaining data dependent.

• The labor market is softening gradually, with rising downside risks to employment but no signs of a sharp downturn.

• Inflation remains somewhat elevated, driven largely by tariffs, while services disinflation continues.

• Consumer spending is resilient, and AI-related business investment remains strong.

• Powell emphasized the Fed is well-positioned to wait for more data before deciding on January policy moves.

In Summary

Chair Powell framed today’s decision as part of a careful shift toward neutral policy, stressing that the Fed has no preset path and will continue to evaluate incoming data “meeting by meeting.” He noted that the labor market has softened—job gains have slowed, unemployment has edged higher, and labor demand has cooled—but he does not foresee a sharp deterioration, even as downside risks to employment have increased. On inflation, Powell said overall price pressures remain somewhat elevated, with goods inflation now entirely driven by tariffs while services disinflation continues. He also cautioned that recent shutdown-distorted inflation and labor data will require careful interpretation.

Powell highlighted that consumer spending remains solid and that business investment, especially in AI data-center capacity, continues to expand. Housing remains weak, and a quarter-point rate cut would do little to improve affordability given long-standing supply constraints. Looking ahead, Powell said the Fed is well-positioned to wait for a substantial amount of new data before the January meeting, adding that the Committee broadly supported today’s decision and remains focused on guiding inflation back to 2% while avoiding unnecessary damage to the labor market.

The markets were encouraged by the Fed chair comments and the decision from the Fed.

US stocks did move lower on the comment that the rate was now near neutral, but reversed higher as the fear of inflation seemed less a concern (with growth continuing).

• Dow industrial average rose 497.46 point or 1.05% to 48057.75. The all-time record high close reached on November 12 was at 48254.82.
• S&P index rose 46.17 points or 0.67% to 6886.68. That is just short of its record high reached on October 29 at 6890.59.
• NASDAQ index rose and 77.67 points or 0.33% at 23654.16. Its all-time high close reached on October 29 is at 23958.47.
• Russell 2000 rose 33.36 points or 1.32% at 2559.60. The index closed at a new record high.

Yields were encouraged by the comments:

• 2-year yield 3.538%, -7.5 basis points. The 2-year yield is now within the Fed funds target rate between 3.5% and 3.75%.
• 5 year yield 3.730%, -4.9 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.150%, -3.5 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.795%, -1.3 basis points.

The USD moved lower after the decision. The declines of the greenback vs the major currencies showed:

• EUR, -0.58%
• JPY -0.58%
• GBP -0.65%
• CHF -0.78%
• CAD -0.35%
• AUD -0.57%
• NZD -0.61%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Fed Chair Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve is “well-positioned” on inflation, growth, employment, and overall policy—language that markets interpreted as a signal of confidence in the current stance. While acknowledging that inflation remains elevated, Powell noted that underlying inflation would already be near 2% were it not for tariff effects, which he described as a one-time price adjustment rather than a persistent inflation driver. If tariffs do not increase further, he suggested, inflation should continue drifting back toward target.

His remarks helped lift equities after an early pullback. By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at a new record high, as did the Russell 2000 small-cap index, while the S&P 500 ended just shy of its own record, reflecting renewed risk appetite following Powell’s balanced and reassuring tone

• Dow industrial average rose 497.46 point or 1.05% to 48057.75. The all-time record high close reached on November 12 was at 48254.82.
• S&P index rose 46.17 points or 0.67% to 6886.68. That is just short of its record high reached on October 29 at 6890.59.
• NASDAQ index rose and 77.67 points or 0.33% at 23654.16. Its all-time high close reached on October 29 is at 23958.47.
• Russell 2000 rose 33.36 points or 1.32% at 2559.60. The index closed at a new record high.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump spoke during a meeting at the White House with business leaders including Dell CEO Michael Dell and the heads of Qualcomm and HP.