News

The federal government managed to escape with a $1.78 trillion shortfall, some $41 billion, or 2.2%, less than fiscal 2024.

You could sense this coming yesterday.

I wrote at the close that the failure to retake the pre-tariff high was a warning sign and now the sellers are hitting the market hard. The S&P 500 is down 1%.

One of the catalysts was Zions Bankcorp taking a write down on what the company called a fraudulent loan (shares down 13%). That adds further fuel to the fire of private equity worries after the bankruptcy of First Brands. Reuters writes more here. That has broader banking stocks lagging.

Consumer facing names are also struggling with WMT off by 2.9% after a recent run-up.

What next? We might have to test the tariff lows and hope they hold.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

A Kremlin aide is out with comments about the Putin/Trump call. The call before the meeting with Trump and Zelenskyy in Washington tomorrow.

• The two countries will quickly prepare for a summit.

• The summit could be in Budapest.

• Conversation was really useful, and both sides agreed to stay in touch.

• Rubio and Russia’s Lavrov will speak by phone to kick things off.

• Call will happen in coming days.

• Trump suggested Budapest, and Putin agreed immediately.

• Putin–Trump call took place at Russia’s initiative.

• Trump told Putin he would take into account what Putin said when he meets Zelensky on Friday.

• Timing of summit will depend on how joint preparations go.

• Ushakov says the Trump–Putin call lasted almost 2.5 hours.

• Call was substantive and open.

• Putin underlined that the Russian army has full strategic initiative along the whole frontline in Ukraine.

• Putin told Trump Ukraine is hitting energy infrastructure.

• Trump told Putin the war in Ukraine was the hardest of all to resolve.

• Trump told Putin the end of the conflict would open up amazing opportunities for economic cooperation with Russia.

• Putin and Trump discussed possible Tomahawk missile deliveries.

• Putin told Trump Tomahawks would not change the battlefield situation but would harm U.S.–Russia ties and the peace process.

Is it a true step to peace again, or is it just another false hope? The solution will require compromises on both sides. In the past, Russia has largely ignored the efforts to peace frustrating Trump in the process.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Scott Bessent said we will get $500 billion in new annual tariffs and they’re only at a run rate of $269 billion in additional funds? I wrote earlier about widespread fraud in customs and that’s soon going to be a big story because these customs numbers are going to keep falling.

As for September overall, it was a record monthly surplus but that usually has to do with the timing of outlays and receipts. On a year-to-date basis, the US deficit is at $1.775 trillion compared to $1.817 trillion a year earlier.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock registered at 3.524M above expectations (0.12M) in October 10

The US Dollar (USD) retreated further on Thursday, clinching multi-day lows as investors continued to assess prospects for rate cuts by the Fed and the impact on the economy of a protracted US shutdown.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) grappled in the middle of a deepening consolidation zone on Thursday, churning on both sides of 46,200 and declining around 200 points on the day.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) rises to near 1.3440 against the US Dollar (USD) after the release of the UK GDP data. The strength in the GBP/USD pair is contributed by the UK data release and weakness in the US Dollar.

EUR/USD is trading higher for the third consecutive day on Thursday and changes hands at 1.1645 at the time of writing.

United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at 3.524M, above forecasts (0.12M) in October 10